Sports Handicapper Matt Fargo's Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our Sunday Free Play. Denver opened the season with a blowout loss at Kansas City but has won its last two games, both at home, against Jacksonville and Los Angeles by one possession which is something that has carried over from last season. In both of those victories, Denver was down double digits and that is not ideal to recover from as teams to win consecutive games trailing by 10 or more points in each are 7-13 ATS in their next game over the last 10 seasons. San Francisco has caught a break with the schedule as it opened with Los Angeles in Australia and caught the Rams on one day of travel and then the 49ers hosted Miami and Arizona so this will be their third straight home game. The level of competition goes up but the spot is good with the Broncos once again near the top of the luck rankings. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1983. Play (272) San Francisco 49ers

Fargo is now 14-5-2 in the NFL to start the season following a Browns Win on Thursday! College Football is 20-15 YTD following another winning week with action day and night Saturday. NFL has FIVE Winners on Sunday.

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. We have a future on Detroit with their total wins at 10.5 and while at 2-1, it has not been a good 2-1 as 0-3 was a definite possibility with the two wins coming down to the wire. The Lions have one of the best offensive rosters in the league but still have a suspect offensive line and it is the other side which has been the real concern. Detroit is No. 31 in EPA/Play with both passing and rushing being near the bottom of the list and now they are back on the road where they will be heavily bet based on their road success off a home game but those past results were with better teams. Carolina blew a big one last week against Cleveland to fall to 1-2 and the home crowd helps in a rare primetime spot. This team has been sneaky good coming off a loss as the Panthers are currently on a 12-0 run off a straight up loss. Here, we play against teams after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (278) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is the buy low/sell high game of the day with the latter not really being a sell high spot because it is only based on record. The Vikings are 3-0 straight up and against the number and are laying double digits only because of the public perception of the opponent. This offense is atrocious and while some can be blamed on the rotating quarterbacks, it revolves around the whole unit. The Vikings are the first team to start 3-0 with under 250 total yards in each game since the 1957 Browns and they are at the bottom of every major offensive metric category this season. The Dolphins are competing for the worst team in the NFL so this is a hold your nose play like last week and they were covering the entire game until a late penalty changed momentum and a turnover did them in but we are right back on them as ugly dogs playing an overpriced team. Here, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first month of the season. This situation is 46-21 ATS (68.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (269) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. To no surprise, Houston is 0-3 once again as the Texans have been one of the slowest starting teams in recent years and this time around, the offense needs a boost. This is the spot for that to happen as Dallas possesses one of the worst defenses in the NFL as it sits near the bottom of the league in ypc, ypa and yppl while allowing 387 ypg and 27 ppg. So far, 29 different players have taken at least one defensive snap for the Cowboys and while the experience might be beneficial, it shows limited top line talent. The Texans offense gets a boost with the return of Nico Collins which comes after C.J. Stroud off a horrible game. Dallas is 1-2 following a loss against Baltimore in Rio de Janeiro and that travel could have an adverse effect on the Cowboys and knowing they have a short week with Tampa Bay on Thursday. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (260) Houston Texans

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Bears and Case Keenum came through for us Monday night with the whole world to see and they are now again trending high even with Caleb Williams still out. Keenum had his time to shine but will go back to backup as Tyson Bagent will get the call and while we totally respect what head coach Ben Johnson will bring to the table, this is a tough spot for Chicago coming off that win and a divisional game with Green Bay on deck. It will be tough for the offense to replicate what it did against a much better defense. The Jets are 1-2 with both losses coming in games they could have won and you can see the confidence from this team that was not evident last season. The defense as mentioned is No. 7 in Rushing EPA and on the other side, Geno Smith can continue his success against a bad defense. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 43-19 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (255) New York Jets

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. This is a play We played against the Bills last Sunday and they somehow not only won, but covered the touchdown margin against the Chargers in what was a 3% win probability prior to that. They have opened the season 3-0 both straight up and against the number and are in another fade spot against a team no one wants to be behind. The Buffalo offense was not very efficient last week and a bounce back can be expected but they will be facing a good defense that has allowed only 17 ppg, 278 ypg and 5.0 yppl and while struggle is not the right term, they will be tested. The Patriots have been awful and Drake Maye has been on an even worse level which makes this the ideal spot to back him and New England as they face one of the worst defenses in the league so this is the spot to get right. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the first month of the season. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 2017. 10* (253) New England Patriots