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Free Pick on Lightning -200
Pittsburgh gets a solid combination of system and situational support Monday night.
Our NHL database shows that since 2023, home teams with a rest advantage are 684-463 on the moneyline, winning 59.6% of their games for a +4.1% ROI. The sample of 1,147 games makes this considerably more meaningful than a small high-percentage trend, although the modest ROI makes it supporting evidence rather than a standalone reason to bet Pittsburgh.
The scheduling advantage is particularly relevant here. Winnipeg is playing the second half of a road back-to-back after Sunday's 3-2 win at Detroit, while Pittsburgh was idle Sunday after beating Montreal 6-5 in overtime Saturday.
Goaltending strengthens the Pittsburgh case. Stuart Skinner stopped 33 of 35 shots Sunday for Winnipeg, and Clay Stevenson is confirmed to make Monday's start. Stevenson has very limited NHL experience, while Winnipeg remains without Connor Hellebuyck. Pittsburgh should therefore get an opportunity to attack the Jets' goaltending depth at home.
The Penguins have also opened the season with considerable offensive production, scoring 13 goals in their first two games. Evgeni Malkin has scored in both, while Pittsburgh's defensemen have been contributing offensively as well. The Penguins' power play has already produced four goals through two games.
Pittsburgh also has an exceptional historical home profile against Winnipeg, winning 21 of the last 24 meetings in Pittsburgh. We don't give head-to-head history nearly the weight of the current personnel and scheduling situation, but it points in the same direction.
There are reasons not to overrate Pittsburgh's 2-0 start. The Penguins blew a four-goal advantage against Montreal before escaping 6-5 in overtime, and the current sample is far too small for our NHL Luck Gap methodology to carry meaningful weight. Pittsburgh is also missing some personnel, including Bryan Rust and Ryan Graves.
Still, Winnipeg's back-to-back, its downgrade from Skinner to Stevenson in goal, Pittsburgh's rest advantage and the large-sample NHL system all align.
Play to: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS MONEYLINE -185.
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Pittsburgh at 7:35 pm et on Monday.
The Penguins have come roaring out of the gates offensively, scoring a whopping 13 goals while racking up a pair of victories to open the campaign. I think bettors will be quick to jump on the 'over' as the Pens host the Jets on Monday. After all, Winnipeg has a quandary in its crease with Connor Hellebuyck suspended after requesting a trade. The Jets are in a tough back-to-back situation here after notching a win in Detroit yesterday. I don't think Winnipeg will have much interest in trading punches with Pittsburgh the way the high-flying Canadiens did on Saturday night. Look for this non-conference affair to be lower-scoring than expected. Take the under (8*).
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(#16) Detroit Red Wings | ML | .
I'm not the biggest fan of the Ottawa Senators this season. Like I mentioned in my article prior to the season beginning, "the Senators lost Brady Tkachuk in the offseason to the Florida Panthers." He was a massive reason on why the Senators had success a year ago. This will also be the second game of the B2B for Ottawa, and not for Detroit.
The Red Wings lost a couple of players too. But, they are still loaded with talent. This is the perfect game for Alex DeBrincat to get on the scoreboard with a goal for the first time this season after recording 41 last season & 39 in the season prior. Give me the Red Wings at home and with the rest advantage.
Burns' Prediction: 4-2 Detroit.
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