Sports Handicapper Jimmy Boyd's Picks & Predictions

5* NO BRAINER on Commanders +3½

This line is priced on Marcus Mariota starting for Washington, and Mariota just proved that tax is too steep.

Both teams come into London at 1-2.

Yet the Colts are laying 3.5 on what amounts to a neutral field.

That number doesn't add up for me.

Mariota stepped in for Jayden Daniels last week and threw 3 touchdown passes in a 33-31 upset of Seattle.

He hit Rachaad White, Treylon Burks and Terry McLaurin for scores.

That's not a backup you fade by nearly a field goal.

McLaurin finally got going with Mariota under center, leading the Commanders in catches, targets and receiving yards.

He takes a 10-141-1 line on 22 targets into this one.

And there's a real chance Washington gets its starter back.

Daniels is practicing and traveling to London.

Dan Quinn said, "I am excited to get him back out on the practice field." If Daniels plays, this price becomes a gift.

Now look at the team laying the points.

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has 3 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles through three games.

Indianapolis is also thin at receiver with Alec Pierce on injured reserve and Ashton Dulin out.

Jonathan Taylor carries the load at 25 touches per game, but he managed a season-low 72 scrimmage yards last week against Houston.

If the ground game stalls again, this offense runs through a turnover-prone quarterback.

Two 1-2 teams, a neutral site, and 3.5 points with the side that just beat Seattle.

The value sits with the underdog.

I like the Commanders

1* Free Pick on Seahawks -7

The Chargers are 0-3 and averaging just 14.7 points a game.

Now they fly to Seattle to face the defending champion Seahawks, who are angry after losing a close one in Washington.

Start with the quarterbacks.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert is completing 59.1 percent of his passes with a 3:4 TD:INT ratio through three games.

His supporting cast is thin.

Tight ends Charlie Kolar and David Njoku are both out, and right tackle Trey Pipkins III is on IR.

That matters against a Seattle defense that has already given up the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Los Angeles has not been close to competitive.

They lost 26-14 to the Cardinals, 26-14 to the Raiders, then fell in Buffalo despite forcing 5 turnovers.

When your defense hands you 5 takeaways and you still lose, the offense is broken.

Seattle is a different story.

The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 a game and allowing 16.7.

Their only loss came on a pick-six in the final minutes at Washington.

Before that they went into Arizona and won 31-7.

Sam Darnold is back under center and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the field in this one.

He takes a 27-405-6 line on 36 targets into Week 4 with three straight games over 120 receiving yards.

The Chargers have no answer for him.

Good team at home off a loss against a bad team that cannot score.

Seven points is not enough.

I like the Seahawks

5* NO BRAINER on Panthers +3½

The Lions are 2-1, but they haven't stopped anybody.

Detroit is allowing 31.67 points per game through three weeks, giving up 30 at home to the Saints and 24 to the Jets.

The secondary is the problem.

Brian Branch is still on the PUP list, Avonte Maddox is on IR for the year, and D.J.

Reed is questionable with a rib injury.

If Reed sits, Rock Ya-Sin starts outside.

That's a beatable group for Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, who gets a Detroit defense surrendering an NFL-high 299.3 passing yards per game.

Darren Waller has been his most reliable target, with 10 catches for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 targets through three games.

Carolina can score.

The Panthers are averaging 29.67 points per game this season, and two weeks ago they walked into Atlanta and won 34-3.

Yes, the Carolina secondary took its own hits with Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson both landing on IR.

That's already priced into this number.

Lions quarterback Jared Goff and his 8:0 TD:INT ratio will move the ball, but Detroit's defense gives Carolina every chance to match scores.

The Panthers also get reinforcements.

Devin Lloyd and Nick Scott both return after missing Week 3.

Lloyd was the best player on the field in Week 2, with 9 tackles, a sack, and 2 interceptions including a pick-six.

Home dog in primetime, getting more than a field goal, with enough offense to keep pace against a leaky defense.

That's the price I want.

I like the Panthers

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Jaguars +2½

This number says the Bengals are the better team.

The defensive numbers say otherwise.

Through 3 games Jacksonville is allowing 12 points per game.

They held Cleveland to 10 in Week 1 and just embarrassed the Patriots 35-6.

The one loss was a 20-13 road game in Denver, and even there the defense did its job.

Cincinnati is giving up 21 a game and just lost 30-27 in Pittsburgh.

Joe Burrow played well in that one, but a late sack-fumble killed the comeback.

The Bengals win when the offense outscores the problem.

That is a thin formula against this Jacksonville defense.

The Jags offense is quietly efficient too.

Trevor Lawrence has 616 passing yards and a 7:2 TD:INT ratio.

Parker Washington has a 15-221-2 receiving line, Jakobi Meyers has 10 catches for 132 yards and 2 scores, and Bhayshul Tuten is averaging 4.7 yards per carry as the lead back.

That is balance, and balance travels.

Cincinnati is also short on bodies.

Andrei Iosivas is on IR, rookie wideout Colbie Young is already ruled out for this one, and cornerback Jalen Davis landed on IR after the Steelers game.

A thinner secondary against a quarterback spreading it to four different weapons is a bad spot.

Both teams are 2-1, both are scoring in the high 20s.

The separator is defense, and Jacksonville has the clear edge there.

Getting 2.5 with the team allowing 9 fewer points per game is buying value, not hoping for it.

I like the Jaguars

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Rams -130

Philadelphia's offense is the story here, and it's not a good one.

The Eagles are averaging just 18.3 points through 3 games this season.

Jalen Hurts is sitting at 206.7 passing yards per game with a 5:3 TD:INT ratio.

Monday night in Chicago they managed 7 points in a 27-7 loss.

The weapons are thinning out too.

Dallas Goedert is doubtful with an MCL sprain, which left Philadelphia starting Johnny Mundt and a week-old Zach Ertz signing at tight end.

Hollywood Brown hasn't practiced since hurting his ankle, and linebacker Zack Baun is in concussion protocol on the other side of the ball.

Now look at the Rams.

Matthew Stafford has carried this offense for two straight weeks without Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams has been the beneficiary: 15 catches for 332 yards and 2 touchdowns during Nacua's absence.

Nacua is expected to return Sunday per Sean McVay, which only adds a layer this Eagles secondary doesn't want.

The ground game travels too.

Kyren Williams is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has caught 11 of 12 targets.

Behind him and Adams, this offense hung 26 on Denver last week and buried the Giants 28-6 the week before.

The Rams' 1-2 record is misleading.

Both losses were competitive games, and the offense is clearly functional.

Philadelphia's is not, and the injury report is working against them getting it fixed by Sunday.

At -130 on the road, the market is telling you who the better team is right now.

I agree with it.

I like the Rams

5* NO BRAINER on 49ers -2½

This line is short for what the 49ers have shown through three weeks.

They're 3-0, averaging 32.67 points a game while giving up 16.67, and they just hung 36 on the Cardinals a week after beating the Dolphins 35-13.

Brock Purdy is the reason.

He's sitting on a 9:1 TD:INT with 789 passing yards through three games, and he threw 4 touchdown passes last Sunday.

George Kittle is the matchup piece here.

He's gone 80 plus receiving yards in back to back games with 2 scores against Arizona, and Denver's cornerback play funnels passing work toward the middle of the field.

That's exactly where Kittle lives.

Now flip it.

The Broncos are 2-1 but the offense has been a grind, averaging just 20 points a game.

Bo Nix has come up short of 200 passing yards twice in three games and has 15 rushing yards on the season since his ankle surgery.

Denver trailed the Rams 16-0 at halftime last week before rallying, and got handled 31-10 by the Chiefs in Week 1.

Marvin Mims is out at receiver, thinning an offense already searching for answers.

The concern is San Francisco's injury list.

Nick Bosa is out with a calf strain and the receiver room is banged up.

But this team beat the Rams 27-7 on the road and hasn't slowed down since.

A field goal or less at home for the better quarterback and the better offense is the wrong price.

I like the 49ers