Sports Handicapper Jim Feist's Picks & Predictions

The Bills have a great match up to win and cover. Buffalo is coming into Sunday 3-0 and averaging a league leading 33.7 points per game. New England is 1-2 and averaging a league tied low of 12.0 points per game. Buffalo also defeated the Chargers 24-16 last week, New England got destroyed 35-6 by Jacksonville.

One player makes this game. Josh Allen has 5 passing touchdowns and 6 rushing touchdowns in just three games. New England's Drake Maye has averaged only 195 passing yards per game. If Buffalo can get out in front of this game, they may be able to take New England out of their balanced attack and put more on Maye.

There's also injury news on the Patriots side that will help Buffalo. The Patriots will be missing CB Christian Gonzalez and DT Christian Barmore. Without Gonzalez this could be tough for the Patriots against Allen and their pass offense. Barmore is another tough loss, he can create a lot of pressure up the middle and play the run. Buffalo has no players ruled out, but CB Christian Benford is listed as questionable and DL T.J. Sanders is doubtful.

Buffalo will also be playing at home, they have won their first 2 games in their new stadium. The Patriots will have to come to Orchard park and slow down one of the highest scoring teams in football.

This game looks to be the biggest mismatch on the board for Sunday as the Bills should win this game by at least two touchdowns.

Jim's Play: 254. Bills (AFC East Game of the Month)

Jacksonville can win outright and cover the spread against Cincinnati on Sunday. The Jaguars are coming in at 2-1 and have played lockdown defense this season, giving up three touchdowns in three games. Jacksonville also ranks top-five in the league in pass-defense efficiency, which should bode well against Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ passing attack.

Lawrence is also a big reason to be confident in Jacksonville. He’s thrown seven touchdowns to two interceptions and looked spectacular in Jacksonville’s victory over New England last week. Cincinnati gave up 30 points to Pittsburgh last week and are banged up at defensive back, leaving Malik Hooker, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase vulnerable. Lawrence has plenty of talent at wide receiver as well with Parker Washington developing into a reliable weapon. Look for Jacksonville to take advantage of injuries in Cincinnati’s secondary.

Jacksonville’s defensive line also poses a threat to Cincinnati’s passing game. Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen should be able to generate pressure against a line that has struggled at times this season. Starting guard Dalton Risner is also banged up, which could lead to consistency issues up front. If Jacksonville can create pressure without blitzing, it could spell trouble for Cincinnati downfield. Burrow will have plenty of success throwing the ball, but Jacksonville has enough pieces on defense to keep things close.

Jim's Play: 261. Jags

Jacksonville is well-positioned to win and cover here on Sunday against the Bengals, and this matchup equally projects well to hit OVER the total. Trevor Lawrence has been efficient with his play this season, and Jacksonville should be able to attack the Cincinnati secondary that has allowed fantasy owners plenty of production through the air. If the Jaguars continue to finish drives as they have been in the red zone, they should be putting up scores in the upper 20s.

Joe Burrow will have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to work with as well, and playing at home should allow the Bengals to put up numbers even against a formidable Jacksonville defense. This all adds up to a game that should go back-and-forth rather than being a battle of defenses.

With both quarterbacks having the ability to make explosive plays, Jacksonville getting points holds value and the total suggests a high-scoring affair as well.

Jim's Play: 261. Jags / Bengals Over

There is a lot to like about the UNDER  in this week's Dolphins-Vikings game on Sunday. Miami has been unable to end drives effectively and only have 36 points on the season after 3 games. Willis only has 1 TD pass to go with 2 interceptions and has been sacked 9 times already. They will be going up against a Vikings defense that has recorded 14 sacks and at least 2 takeaways in every game.

Minnesota also has struggles on offense. They are 3-0, but have only gained 246 net yards per game and Kyler Murray has yet to find his rhythm throwing the ball. They will also be without Justin Jefferson who was ruled out today with an ankle injury. So they will have to rely more on Aaron Jones and field position and play defense.

Miami will have to take care of Willis against Brian Flores blitz heavy scheme as well. Expect a lot of short passes, QB scrambles and no turnovers.

This game started out at 43.5 so the line has come down a few points, but there is still some value on the UNDER here.

Jim's Play: 269. Dolphins / Vikings Under

The Cardinals and Giants game should go over this number. It's sitting at 43.5 which should be very attainable. Arizona has given up 81 points over the last 3 games averaging 27 points per game. They have not had much of a pass rush and have allowed some big plays to go for them. They have also been giving up a lot on the ground which will allow Skattebo and Najee Harris to have a good game and help ease the load on Jameis Winston.

I think Arizona can score as well. Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 652 yards 4 TD's and only 1 INT. He has completed 82 of his 117 passes. Last week we saw that Arizona is willing to throw the ball a lot with 52 pass attempts against the 49ers. They will be able to throw the ball short and quick against the Giants who have only 1 sack over the last 3 games.

Also the Giants pass rush will be depleted without Brian Burns. Which will allow Brissett to throw the ball more to McBride and keep drives alive. Cardinals DE Josh Sweat is questionable with a groin injury.

Doesn't have to be a blow out for this to hit. Just 27-23 or 27-24 would do it. Both teams have shown that they can give up big plays on the front end.

Jim's Play: 257. Cardinals / Giants OVER

I believe we have a good OVER pick on the Colts vs Commanders on Sunday morning in London. Both teams have struggled to stop the pass and Indianapolis is allowing the most total yards at 417.3 per game, worst in the NFL. So Washington should be able to move the ball against them, even without Jayden Daniels. Marcus Mariota proved that they can score without Daniels last week, throwing for 19/31 for 183 yards and 3 TD's with no interceptions. They were able to come away with a 33-31 win against Seattle.

The Colts should be able to find ways to score as well. Washington is very good against the run, they allow the 3rd least rushing yards per game. So Jones will have to throw the ball, which should work in our favor. They've allowed more points to the pass, so that's where we can attack them. Josh Downs has been the Colts best receiver and they can throw to TE Tyler Warren as well.

They will be missing Keenan Allen with a groin injury, but they have Downs, Darius Slayton and Tyler Warren. The Colts can score against the Commanders pass defense and Daniel Jones can also give them short fields by throwing interceptions and fumbling the ball away. He already has 3 INT's and 2 fumbles this season.

As I mentioned, Washington scored 33 points last week, they can capitalize on turnovers. If Mariota can throw for 2-3 touchdowns and Indianapolis can take advantage of the Commanders coverage, there's plenty of room to go over 47.5.

Jim's Play: 251. Colts/Commanders Over

I think the Bucs +3.5 at home vs Green Bay is a good bet even without Baker Mayfield. The reason being is that Green Bay has not been playing like a team that should be giving up more than a field goal on the road. They are only 1-2 on the season and 0-3 against the spread. 0-2 against the spread on the road. Also coming off of a 35-14 loss to Atlanta.

With rookie Jalon Daniels taking over at QB the Bucs should run the ball a lot. This seems more feasible with Bucky Irving able to play and Chris Godwin also available. He can also run which could allow the Bucs to gain yards on the ground. Which can help stop the Packers from getting pressure.

The Bucs should also be able to win this battle up front. Green Bay will be missing their starting guards Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk. With another lineman on their D questionable as well in Jager Burton. They will struggle to control the line against Tampa's D front.

They are playing at home as well. Tampa Bay has won 3 out of the last 4 against Green Bay. So they should play with a sense of urgency after being 0-3.

The only downside is at the QB position. With Daniels making his first start and Love having more experience. However I feel comfortable giving them more than a field goal at home.

Jim's Play: 264. Buccaneers

The Dodgers are again positioned to take Game 2 on Sunday and lead the NLDS 2-0. Once again, the difference may be pitching. Los Angeles plans to send Blake Snell to the mound, while Atlanta is likely to employ another bullpen game with an opener barring a late Chris Sale miracle. Snell posted a record of 4-1 with a 1.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 55 strikeouts across 42.2 innings this year.

That is an unfavorable matchup for Atlanta's offense, which hit around a 91 wRC+ against southpaws this season. The Dodgers exploited it by starting Tarik Skubal on Saturday, and Snell presented Atlanta with another high-K lefty starter on Sunday.

Atlanta's pitching situation is more concerning than Los Angeles'. Dylan Dodd served as Atlanta's opener Saturday and threw three hitless innings, but Dodgers hitters found the middle of the bullpen. Víctor Mederos and AJ Smith-Shawver combined to allow three home runs as Los Angeles took a 5-1 lead before the Braves got a pair in the 9th to lose 3-5. Atlanta also used six pitchers in Thursday's Wild Card game, then traveled west for Game 1. Asking your bullpen to eat another starter's innings is going to put a severe strain on your depth yet again.

Dodgers hitters showed what can happen in Game 1. Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy all went deep, and navigating through a lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and several other dangerous hitters is tough enough when you're not constantly worrying about matchups and changing pitchers for nine innings.

Atlanta will no doubt have a lot of baseball left and could certainly stay in this game, particularly if their higher-leverage relievers are fresh, but Los Angeles holds a clear edge in this pitching matchup. Snell should provide quality innings for the Dodgers while Atlanta may again be forced to string together 27 outs against one of the league's best offenses.

Jim’s Play: 928. Dodgers

I think Denver will have a good chance to cover as a slight dog at San Francisco. Denver is 2-1 and have beaten tough opponents already this year. They took care of Jacksonville and the Rams after losing to Kansas City week 1. They are also 2-1 on the spread. Their defense has faced a better schedule of QBs then what San Fran has faced.

San Fran has had some injuries to their defense as well. With Nick Bosa out and Dre Greenlaw questionable. That's a big chunk of their pass rush. Denver should be able to get more out of Bo Nix this week. San Fran defense has been mediocre when it comes to success rate and EPA per play. They've had easier matchups the first few weeks.

The Broncos offense was able to find their footing in the 2nd half of last week's game vs the Rams. Bo Nix has shown he can make plays down the stretch. He should be able to make some plays against the San Fran defense with some key players out. 

The Bronco defense should be able to give them some trouble as well. Denver ranks 10th in EPA vs the pass and have already played against Mahomes, Lawrence and Stafford. Pat Surtain will be a big factor on the outside. San Fran may also not have Mike Evans; he's questionable with a rib injury.

San Fran is 3-0 but they've played Miami and Arizona. They weren't able to cover at home against Arizona last week. This is a much harder test for them. I like to get near a field goal on Denver.

Jim's Play: 271. Broncos

Take: 266. Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (10 pt / 1 et)

Philadelphia is primed to cash as a home dog here on Snday against the LA Rams. While Philly came away with an ugly loss at Chicago in Week 1, they return to Lincoln Financial Field looking to improve upon their 1-0 home record to start the season while Los Angeles fell to 0-1 away from SoFi Stadium last week.

They also won their last four meetings against the Rams, including a playoff game in 2021. Philadelphia will be without DeVonta Smith and Zack Baun Sunday, but Los Angeles can’t even suit up Aaron Donald, which should open up running lanes for Hurts and the Eagles’ ground game. The Rams also completely collapsed last week in Denver, surrendering a 16-0 halftime lead, which bodes well for their Week 2 opponent as well.

Expect Hurts to make plays with his legs and keep drives alive, while Philadelphia gets better than a field goal at home and covers the spread.

CFB

10/03/2026  (9pm pt / 12 pm et)

213. San Jose State  vs  214. Hawaii

Take: 213. San Jose St. +3 

 I'll go with San Jose State +3 on Saturday night vs Hawaii. San Jose State is 2-2 after their week off. Hawaii is 1-3 and 0-2 in the MWC. They came up short vs Wyoming this past week, scoring 2 touchdowns on 8 drives and giving up 183 yards on the ground along with 3 rushing TD's.

That will give Jabari Bates another opportunity to gain yards. He currently sits at 413 yards rushing which puts him up near the top of the nation in rushing yards. If they can establish the run against Hawaii it should allow them to move the chains and ease Luke Weaver off some pressure.

They also have taken care of business against Hawaii lately. San Jose State has won the past 5 matches against Hawaii and will try to win on the road in Honolulu for the first time since beating them 35-0.

If San Jose State can keep establishing their run game I think they can win this one inside the FG margin or outright.

Jim’s Play: 213. San Jose St.