Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 10/4:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line versus the Atlanta Braves listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Dylan Dodd. Los Angeles (101-62) has won four games in a row after taking the opening game of this best-of-five series with a 5-3 victory at home on Saturday. The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 16 games in October. They have also won 44 of their last 64 games at home that are considered night games. Atlanta (96-70) has lost 44 of their last 74 games on the road as an underdog. The Braves have also lost 10 of their last 14 games as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher. Take the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports improved their 23 of 34 (68%) NFL run by DELIVERING their 25* AFC East Underdog of the Month on New England who PULLED OFF THE UPSET on the road in Buffalo! Frank is now on a 31 of 49 (63%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays and a 26 of 37 (70%) football run! Frank is also on a 15 of 19 (79%) NFL sides streak — and he furthers his 12 of 17 (71%) NFL Game of the Month/Year mark with his 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month for tonight’s Detroit-Carolina ATS winner on NBC-TV at 8:20 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank is on a 17 of 24 (71%) NFL Prime-Time run with SEVEN NFL PRIME-TIME SIDE/TOTAL SWEEPS since the Super Bowl to make it 20 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since last season and fueling his long-running 296 of 513 (58%) NFL Prime-Time run! Frank has 40 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the start of the 2024 season — and his Hollywood Sports has 62 PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the 2023 season and 82 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the ’22 season! Frank is also on a 34 of 55 (62%) NFL TOTALS TEAR — and now he has tonight’s Detroit-Carolina O/U winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Sunday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (277) and the Carolina Panthers (278). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 win at home against the New York Jets on Sunday. Carolina (1-2) has lost two of their opening three games after their 21-18 upset loss at Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: No, I am not trying to escape captors by communicating to anyone that will interpret this conclusion as me being kidnapped. I try to limit investing and endorsing in Unders to only when they are going to win. In this situation, while there is some intriguing evidence backing the Under tonight, the majority of the evidence calls for the Over — even with the number passing the 50-point threshold (and we bet numbers, not “high-scoring” or “low-scoring). These are two high-scoring offenses facing injury-riddled defenses. Detroit has scored 31 points in each of their three games, but they have surrendered 24 or more points in all three of their contests and are getting outscored overall this season. The Lions have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 30 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. They travel on the road to Bank of America Stadium — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing on field turf, which allows them to take advantage of their speed on offense. Detroit has also played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. This team’s biggest concern is their secondary, which is an absolute mess — especially given their injury situation this week. Maybe by December, things will be settled — but right now, both starting safeties are uncertain to return as they recover from significant injuries. Free safety Brian Branch may be able to return midseason from the Achilles injury he suffered in December. Strong safety Kerby Joseph has an ongoing knee issue that currently has his status up in the air. When healthy, that safety duo is the strength of the unit. Former first-round pick Terrion Arnold was abruptly released on June 29th after the starting cornerback was involved in kidnapping charges. D.J. Reed is solid at one of the cornerback spots — but questions remain regarding who out of a group of journeymen retreads or perennially injured projects. He is also listed as questionable tonight with a rib injury. Thomas Harper was getting time at safety — but he was put on IR this week with an ankle injury. Cornerback Avonte Maddox had been starting this season as well — but he is now out the year with a foot injury. The Lions were last in the NFL last season in adjusted games lost to injury on defense — and they are keeping pace this season. Detroit’s defense that ranks second-to-last in the league in Opponent Expected Points Allowed per Play. The Lions also rank 31st in the NFL with opponents converting on 56% of their third downs. Detroit ranks second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to score on 84.6% of their trips inside the Red Zone. The 299.3 passing Yards-Per-Game they are surrendering is worst in the NFL. For Carolina, quarterback Bryce Young continues to improve. He was certainly better last season as he continued to lean on the things he started doing better in the second half of the 2024-25 season, when an injury to Andy Dalton got him on the field again after he was benched after two games. He only took 27 sacks last season — and he dropped his adjusted sack rate from 7.5% to 6.1% last year. He leaned on his mobility to elude pressure — and he averaged 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry. His turnover-worthy play rate was low, and he only threw 11 interceptions. He passed for 3011 yards. His growth has continued this season. Third-year offensive coordinator Brad Idzik took over the play-calling from Canales — and he has increased the tempo and pass rate of the offense. They rank seventh in the NFL by generating 392.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and that is generating 29.7 PPG, ranking fifth in the league. Young has 13 completions of 20 or more yards this season, which is tied for the most in the NFL. He has also lowered his Turnover-Worthy play rate to just 0.73%. How many times do we have to learn the lesson to not give up on first-round quarterbacks? Ask Jared Goff! The Panthers have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games at home Over the Total after losing their last game. They return home where they have played 12 of their last 16 games at home Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 straight Overs at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. On the other side of the football, recent injuries to Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn, one of the best cornerback duos in the league is concerning. As it is, the Panthers defense ranks last in the NFL by allowing their opponents to score on 86.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. Before losing those cornerbacks, Carolina’s opponents were finding success running the football against them. The Panthers rank just 18th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Rushing Attempt — and they rank 16th in Opponent Rushing Yards Allowed before contact. This defense has the third-lowest Opponent Rush Stuff Rate in the NFL. What is most concerning about these numbers is that two of the quarterbacks they faced have been Cooper Rush and Deshaun Watson. Remember, the Chicago Bears put up 59 points against them in the opening week. Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs should get more than his share of yards tonight. Detroit generates 6.7 Yards-Per-Play — and Carolina has played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against opponents that are allowing 5.65 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, including 8 of those 11 games played at home. The Lions have played 23 of their 32 games Over the Total in the Dan Campbell era as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points, including 5 of their last 7 games on the road as a favorite in that point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (277) and the Carolina Panthers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (278) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (277). THE SITUATION: Carolina (1-2) has lost two of their opening three games after their 21-18 upset loss at Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-1) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 win at home against the New York Jets on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have been point spread darlings for years for the betting public under the successful rebuild under head coach Dan Campbell. But eventually these trends inevitably reverse when the market overvalues an NFL team from recent against-the-spread success. Detroit eked out a point spread victory last week — but the last time they covered the point spread in two games in a row was in Weeks Two through Five of last season. Since then, the Lions are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall — and they have lost and failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up victory. And while Detroit has scored 31 points in each of their three games, they have surrendered 24 or more points in all three of their contests and are getting outscored overall this season — and the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games in the Campbell tenure after playing three games in a row when both teams scored at least 24 points points. After two straight playoff berths and NFC North titles, the Lions took a step back last season by missing the playoffs with a 9-8 record, which technically left them in last place in the division after considering the tiebreakers. This is now a team in transition — and the question has to be asked if this franchise missed their window of opportunity to reach the Super Bowl for the first time. The offensive line will have two new starters after the team moved from left tackle Taylor Decker and center Graham Glasgow. Moving All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell to left tackle should be seamless. Detroit drafted Clemson right tackle Blake Miller in the first round and then signed Carolina’s breakout starting center Cade Mays in free agency. The other two will be filled by recent draft picks. Right guard Tate Ratledge is in his second season after getting drafted in the second round out of Georgia. Left guard Christian Mahogany is in his third season after he was drafted in the sixth round from Boston College. Both players started last season — but there are some red flags with that pair after quarterback Jared Goff got sacked 38 times. The Lions’ offensive line was ranked 31st in the league in ESPN’S Pass-Block ratings. The run blocking was not elite either, as they had the 11th-highest Run Stuff Rate allowed — and they ranked only 24th in Success Rate with Power Rushing Attempts. When Detroit played San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game two years ago, they may have boasted the best offensive line in football. That is no longer the case. After trading David Montgomery in the offseason, running back Jahmyr Gibbs will be asked to be the bell-cow back for the first time in his career. While uber-talented, his taking 55% of the carries last season was a career-high. The Lions signed Isiah Pacheco in the offseason — but he may already be on the downside of his career after battling several injuries. The biggest concern is their secondary, which is an absolute mess — especially given their injury situation this week. Maybe by December, things will be settled — but right now, both starting safeties are uncertain to return as they recover from significant injuries. Free safety Brian Branch may be able to return midseason from the Achilles injury he suffered in December. Strong safety Kerby Joseph has an ongoing knee issue that currently has his status up in the air. When healthy, that safety duo is the strength of the unit. Former first-round pick Terrion Arnold was abruptly released on June 29th after the starting cornerback was involved in kidnapping charges. D.J. Reed is solid at one of the cornerback spots — but questions remain regarding who out of a group of journeymen retreads or perennially injured projects. He is also listed as questionable tonight with a rib injury. Thomas Harper was getting time at safety — but he was put on IR this week with an ankle injury. Cornerback Avonte Maddox had been starting this season as well — but he is now out the year with a foot injury. The Lions were last in the NFL last season in adjusted games lost to injury on defense — and they are keeping pace this season. And this touches on one of my consistent criticisms of general manager Brad Holmes. The conventional wisdom is that he has been a brilliant architect of this roster — and he certainly has some good draft picks and deserves credit for the bravery to trade Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff and draft capital. But he cannot help himself from falling in love with players in the early rounds of the NFL draft and then trading draft capital to move up in the draft to snag him. He did it twice in last April’s draft. To move up six spots to target Michigan defensive end Derrick Moore in the second round, he gave away the 50th pick in the draft and a fourth-round pick. To move up 13 slots in the fifth round to take wide receiver Kendrick Law with the 168th pick, Holmes gave away their 181st and the 213th picks for a player that will likely contribute only on special teams. I understand the desire to spend draft capital on undervalued players that surprisingly dropped in the draft — but Holmes sees diamonds in the rough everywhere. As I wrote in my deep dive on the Lions two years ago: “Falling in love with players in the draft — and then trading up for them comes at a cost. Former general manager Matt Millen would do that a lot. The third-round picks Holmes is giving away could have added another wideout, a defensive end, a cornerback.” I then added last year: “Holmes did it again in last April’s draft by throwing in two third-round picks in the 2026 draft to get Jacksonville to swap third-round picks so he could snatch wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa from Arkansas. Holmes traded up to draft an injured Williams in the middle of the first round too. If the injuries hit this team this season and their depth is once again challenged, remember these moments.” While TeSlaa is expected to start as their third wide receiver this season (albeit, their fifth or sixth target tight end Sam LaPorta and Gibbs out of the backfield), those two additional third-round picks could present some answers in the secondary (or on the offensive line) this year — and it could have made a difference in making the playoffs last season given all their injuries on defense. Perhaps Holmes’ plan is to simply have his team avoid injuries this season. Good luck with that. At a certain point, the aggressiveness veers into arrogance, getting high on your supply of talent evaluation. And the arrogance quickly slips into recklessness. I do not think it is a coincidence that this slippery slope of aggressiveness-to-arrogance-to-recklessness also describes head coach Dan Campbell’s penchant for going for it on fourth down and deploying fake punts. I strongly think his antics in the NFC Championship Game cost his team the opportunity to play in the Super Bowl three seasons ago. One of the jobs of a good head coach is to be a caretaker of the scoreboard for his team — especially when the talent on the team continues to improve. It’s one thing to be ultra-aggressive when leading a team that has double-digit losses in four straight seasons. It is quite another when the group that generated a 17-point lead in San Francisco against the 49ers is 30 minutes from reaching the Super Bowl. Campbell continues to fail in his caretaker responsibilities. For the second time in his head coaching career, he took over the play-calling duties midseason from his offensive coordinator. It was Anthony Lynn in 2021. It was John Morton last year. Well, who is the bum that hired these bums? One could call it his taking responsibility for things he didn’t like. On the other hand, there is a certain “look at me!” quality of taking over the play-calling that is similar to continuing to GO FOR IT on fourth downs. Or wearing “Grit” t-shirts, as he has been known to do. Similar to the teenage dudes wearing “Big Johnson” t-shirts on spring break, if you're wearing a t-shirt that says “Grit,” maybe you don’t have grit. Wearing a shirt that reads “Winner” does not make one a winner. But it does advertise that someone wants to be known as a winner. If the Winkelvosses were the inventors of Facebook, then they would have invented Facebook. Winners don’t wear shirts that read “Winner.” This may be a minor point, but it adds to a growing list. I have argued for years that Campbell’s schtick has a shelf life — and there will come a point when the team is not winning, when it will become tired. Or as the kids say: cringe. The Lions lost five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession played a large role — and it is hard for me not to consider Campbell’s game management when considering this. They still have elite players. But if you are looking for canaries in the coal mine, here’s one: Quarterback Jared Goff ranked third in the NFL in Passing DVOA when not facing pressure — but he plummeted to 31st last season in that metric when encountering pass rush pressure. There are thunder clouds on the horizon from the salary cap crunch the franchise faces to pay all the guys struck Holmes with Cupid’s arrow. Hutchinson, Sewell, Joseph, linebacker Jack Campbell, and wide receiver Jameson Williams have already been paid on their big second contract. Gibbs, LaPorta, and Branch are looming — and then Goff’s contract explodes to over $60 million per year starting next year. The window is closing. Some more hidden gems drafted on Day Three would be nice to have around as value adds. The pressure is mounting … and pressure is known to burst pipes. For the moment, most of that pressure is on the defense that ranks second-to-last in the league in Opponent Expected Points Allowed per Play. The Lions also rank 31st in the NFL with opponents converting on 56% of their third downs. Detroit ranks second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to score on 84.6% of their trips inside the Red Zone. The 299.3 passing Yards-Per-Game they are surrendering is worst in the NFL. Carolina got upset by the Browns last week despite holding the Browns to 259 yards of offense — and they outgained them by +101 net yards. Yet this team has become very resilient under third year head coach Dave Canales. The Panthers have covered a remarkable 12 straight games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less. This team has their bye week on deck — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games before their bye week, including an upset victory as a double-digit underdog against the Los Angeles Rams last season. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games before their bye week while scoring 30.8 PPG in those contests. Unquestionably, the Panthers improved last season. Not only did they win their first NFC South title since 2017, but they gave the Los Angeles Rams a genuine scare in their 34-31 loss in the wildcard round of the NFL playoffs. Quarterback Bryce Young was certainly better as he continued to lean on the things he started doing better in the second half of the 2024-25 season, when an injury to Andy Dalton got him on the field again after he was benched after two games. He only took 27 sacks last season — and he dropped his adjusted sack rate from 7.5% to 6.1% last year. He leaned on his mobility to elude pressure — and he averaged 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry. His turnover-worthy play rate was low, and he only threw 11 interceptions. He passed for 3011 yards. His growth has continued this season. Third-year offensive coordinator Brad Idzik took over the play-calling from Canales — and he has increased the tempo and pass rate of the offense. They rank seventh in the NFL by generating 392.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and that is generating 29.7 PPG, ranking fifth in the league. Young has 13 completions of 20 or more yards this season, which is tied for the most in the NFL. He has also lowered his Turnover-Worthy play rate to just 0.73%. How many times do we have to learn the lesson to not give up on first-round quarterbacks? Ask Jared Goff! On the other side of the ball, after ranking last in the league by giving up 31.4 PPG and 404.5 total YPG, the Panthers held their opponents to 327.2 total YPG, which resulted in just 22.4 PPG, ranking 16th and 15th in the NFL, respectively. Holding your opponents to -75.3 fewer YPG and -9.0 PPG is a significant achievement! To Canales and general manager Dan Morgan’s credit, they both made some changes in the offseason to address some glaring shortcomings. Canales has given up the play-calling in a move I almost universally think is a positive step. A head coach already has enough responsibilities. Do those things right — and delegate the precious play-calling to someone else (rarely is the head coach as good a play-caller as he imagines himself to be). Morgan invested significant resources in the offensive line. Given the major knee injury to left tackle Ikem Ekwonu in the playoffs, this was a major area of need. The Panthers signed New Orleans free agent Luke Fortner and then drafted Sam Hecht in the fifth round to compete with him at center. Morgan also signed tackles Rasheed Walker from Green Bay and Stone Forsyth from Las Vegas and then drafted Monroe Freeling from Georgia in the first round of the NFL draft.  The Carolina defense ranked last in the league with a pressure rate of 26.2% — and their 30 sacks were the third fewest in the NFL. Carolina added Jacksonville All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd and Philadelphia linebacker Jean Phillips to bolster the pass rush — and then drafted Texas Tech’s Lee Hunter in the second round to add depth in the middle of their defensive line. Lloyd has been out with an injury — but he is expected to return to the field tonight. Recent injuries to Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn, one of the best cornerback duos in the league is concerning — but I still expect this to be a very close game that the Panthers are live dogs in pulling off the upset. 

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home as an underdog — and the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on Sunday Night Football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month is with the  Carolina Panthers (278) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.                  

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (253) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (254). THE SITUATION: New England (1-2) looks to bounce back from their 35-6 loss at Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after a 24-16 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a classic “we bet numbers, not teams” situation. I was certainly not the only voice that was skeptical of quarterback Drake Maye and this New England team before the season started. Fortunate playoffs circumstances before last year’s Super Bowl aside, the opportunity to take the Patriots as a divisional underdog getting a touchdown or so is too good to pass up. Yes, Maye has struggled with some ugly gaffes put on tape. Of course, the 24/7 Sports Media Industrial Complex has overreacted. Let’s remember that the conventional wisdom Hot Take in Josh Allen’s third season in the league was that he was already a bust. But as I wrote in my deep dive before the season on this team: “Some of his underlying metrics are very encouraging moving forward. He led the NFL by completing 71% of his passes — and these were not empty-calorie throws as he led all regular starters with an average depth of target of 9.1 air yards. His completion percentage was +9.1% above the expected completion percentage, which also was the best mark in the league — this suggests his balls were significantly more on target than the average NFL quarterback. The Patriots led the NFL in Explosive Rate in the Passing game.” Regarding the team, the biggest thing to keep in mind is that they have been a M*A*S*H* Unit this season. Linebacker Harold Landry III and wide receiver A.J. Brown remain out. Starting cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive end Christian Barmore are out this week. Frankly, this play was almost a pass for me if a few more of their starters listed as questionable were looking like they would not play. But after conducting due diligence this morning, it looks like all the players listed as questionable are trending in the right direction. The most important name is strong safety Craig Woodson, who missed last week with a shoulder. He did participate in practice all week, and the team is optimistic that both pass rusher Dre’Mont Jones will return to action this afternoon. Woodson is critical because the Patriots’ preferred scheme against the Bills’ 13 formation with three tight ends is by playing three safeties — and that is something they could not do last week against the Jaguars’ 13 look without Woodson. We always take a leap of faith that the late Saturday afternoon updates are reliable. In this instance, I am willing to take the risk — but it was close, and I take this aspect of handicapping very seriously (it’s why I tend to wait until after Saturday to commit to what I am investing and endorsing). Head coach Mike Vrabel should have his team ready to play in this critical game for his squad. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and Vrabel’s teams in his head coaching career are 26-18-3 ATS after a straight-up loss. New England has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Vrabel’s teams are also 30-18-2 ATS in their last 50 games as an underdog. The Patriots’ Super Bowl run may have been earlier than expected in Vrabel’s tenure. But they ranked fourth in the NFL in weighted DVOA, which attempts to take strength of schedule into account — and they rose to second in that metric after the Super Bowl. Buffalo committed five turnovers last week against the Chargers — and that is often a canary in the coal mine, rather than that occurrence being a fluke. NFL teams coming off a game where they committed five or more turnovers are 13-24-1 ATS in those last 38 situations. The Bills are playing their third straight game at home as they christen their new Hallmark Stadium. Bettors tend to put more value in the three-game home stand — yet it often contributes to some of the lethargy we saw last week with this team. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three games in a row. Despite overcoming their -4 net turnover margin last week, they only outgained the Chargers by +2 net yards. I maintain some healthy skepticism about this team. They beat a Houston team in Week One that I had significant concerns about — and the Texans remain winless. They then got Detroit at home with their beat-up secondary, which they were able to exploit. Then they were listless last week against an 0-2 (but desperate) Chargers team who gave that game away. The Bills missed perhaps their best window of opportunity to finally reach the Super Bowl in the Josh Allen era. Kansas City was down last season, and Baltimore did not even make the playoffs. Yet after barely surviving in the wildcard round in a late comeback win at Jacksonville, they found another way to lose in the postseason in their heartbreaking 33-30 loss in overtime at Denver. In hindsight, the 2025-26 NFL season was one of transition — and Buffalo’s failure to reach the AFC Championship Game is part of that story. With Allen in tears in the locker room afterwards, after yet another playoff disappointment, it was time to move on from head coach Sean McDermott. I think he is a good coach and often gets unfairly criticized. But sometimes change is necessary for simply the sake of change. It’s just too many bad vibes now in the playoffs with McDermott on the sidelines. With that failure, it was time for a change as Allen turns 30 years old. But general manager Brandon Beane may have gotten too cute by promoting offensive coordinator Joe Brady as their next head coach? Does he represent a symbolic break from the past culture? Beane wanted continuity on offense to remain — but does the rookie head coach have the chops to be a leader of men, which McDermott certainly was? Of course, Brady will continue to call plays on offense — and this only adds to the challenge of a rookie head coach who has never had the immense responsibility of game management. Admittedly, I don't have a great alternative out there that Beane should have hired -- I think the ideal candidate on paper was a veteran head coach on the offensive side of the ball (Jim Harbaugh would have been perfect, but they were two years too late), but the only one who fit that mold was Mike McCarthy, who seemed emotionally committed to take his dream job with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The offensive coordinator is Pete Carmichael Jr., who held the clipboard for Sean Payton for years as offensive coordinator for New Orleans while Payton called the offensive plays the majority of the time. The reviews were not glowing regarding his performance running the offense by himself for Dennis Allen when the Payton regime ended with the Saints. The defense will be run by former Bills safety Jim Leonhard. While Leonhard was considered an outstanding defensive coordinator during his time in college with Wisconsin, he has never called plays at the NFL level. He has been the passing game coordinator on defense for the Broncos the last two seasons. It is a concern that he is shifting the defense to a 3-4 since most of the defensive players were drafted or acquired for a 4-2/4-2-5 look. Defense has been the area holding this team back. In their last six playoff losses with Allen under center, they have surrendered 33.2 Points-Per-Game. They scored 25.5 PPG in those six playoff losses, the top in the NFL over that span, so it is tough to blame Allen or the offense for these setbacks. The Bills need to do better in stopping the run after surrendering 136.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking 28th in the NFL. They ranked second-to-last in run defense using the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). So far this season, the Lions could not run against them behind a very banged-up offensive line — but the Texans rank for 124 yards, and the Chargers rushed for 131 last week. Running the football will certainly be the blueprint for the Patriots this afternoon. With four starters back on their very good offensive line and wide receiver D.J. Moore acquired in a trade with Chicago to provide Allen a veteran who can play the X role, the offense should remain strong. But this is basically the same story every year — except now the Bills have a rookie defensive coordinator at the NFL level, an unproven offensive coordinator when not taking his cues from Sean Payton, and a rookie head coach who played a major role in the old regime and culture. It’s not going to be terribly surprising if Buffalo continues to fall short in the playoffs, even with Allen under center. The vibes needed to change in Buffalo, but the options available to them at the time were far from ideal. While we are months away from getting answers to these questions about how the Bills will fare in the postseason given all these changes, this afternoon’s circumstances are ones where they have not fared particularly well in the past. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. The Patriots are scoring only 16.7 Points-Per-Game — but the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who are not scoring more than 17.0 PPG. Furthermore, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against New England. 

FINAL TAKE: Allen has made 15 starts at home against fellow AFC East rivals as a favorite of six or more points. While he has led the Bills to victory in 14 of those games, they are just 5-9-1 ATS in those 15 contests. In Maye’s 10 starts against fellow AFC East opponents, the Patriots have covered the point spread 8 times, including covering 3 of their 4 games against Buffalo. 25* AFC East Underdog of the Month with the New England Patriots (253) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 10/4:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. Take the Tennessee Titans plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens. Tennessee (0-3) remains winless this season after their 12-7 loss on the road in New York against the Giants as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Titans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row. And while first-year head coach Robert Saleh has a 23-35 ATS mark in his head coaching career mostly with the New York Jets, those Jets teams covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games played in October which suggests his ability to make adjustments after the first month of the season. Baltimore (2-1) comes off a 34-31 last second victory against Dallas on Sunday in that game played in Brazil as a 3-point favorite. The Ravens return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Take Tennessee plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is still on a 22 of 33 (67%) NFL run, along with a 30 of 48 (63%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays and a 25 of 36 (69%) football run, despite a rough few days! Frank perseveres on a 14 of 18 (78%) NFL sides streak — and he turns things around by furthering his 11 of 16 (69%) NFL Game of the Month/Year mark with a 25* NFL Divisional Underdog of the Month this afternoon! DO NOT MISS OUT!