Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#925/926 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs (-105) – San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Padres Michael King is coming off of a fantastic start (only 1 hit in 7 scoreless innings) in Wild Card action versus the Cubs.  In his 5 career playoff appearances (3 starts) he is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA.  Also, King went 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA in his 13 starts after the All-Star break.  The Brewers start a young hurler here but he gets the benefit of pitching at home and we expect a strong outing from Logan Henderson here.  He is 6-0 with a 1.84 ERA in his 8 home starts this season.  Henderson has held opponents to a .169 batting average in those 8 starts and he loves pitching in Milwaukee.  Also, he went 8-2 with a 2.19 ERA in his 12 starts after the All-Star break.  Both teams have strong bullpens and those pens combined to allow only 1 earned run in 10 and 1/3 innings yesterday.  Overall the teams struggled in scoring situations yesterday but that is not uncommon in the post-season when the pressure is the highest.  Yesterday's game finished a tight 3-2 Milwaukee win and we are forecasting something similar today with a strong starting pitching match-up contributing well toward a solid under in this one.  Our computer math model projects a total of only 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. Bet the Under in this one.

Nations League: #234306 ASA PLAY ON Azerbaijan Goal Line PK -148 over Lithuania, Sunday at 9 am et – With the change in format coming up on the next cycle of Nations League, Group D is being absorbed into Group C. So there is less pressure on Group D clubs this season than what we would typically see. This does change the fact that Azerbaijan is not happy at all about two things heading into this one. They were a big favorite against Liechtenstein and failed to get the job done in a disappointing draw. Additionally they are now starting up at Lithuania in the standings. Hosting this match and having some extra motivation certainly should produce a quality effort from Azerbaijan here. They are the favorite here on the money line in this one as the money line option looks like this: +140/+200/+220. The problem with the money line is that a draw would also be a loss at the betting window. With the goal line option at a Pick, we would rather lay the -148 price and know that we would get a return of our wager (rather than a loss) if this match should end in a draw. We do expect the hosts to prevail in a 1-0 or 2-1 final in this one. The bet here is Azerbaijan on the goal line at PK -148.

#273/274 ASA PLAY ON Under 48 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This has been a low scoring AFC West series and we don’t think anything changes this season. The last 8 times these rivals have met the total points scored has not gone over 48. The average total points scored in the last 6 meetings was 41 and none of those games had a total set higher than 44.5. We think there is value on the under with this total currently set at 48 points. Both defenses have played very well this season ranking 6th (KC) and 9th (LV) in the defensive DVOA metric. They rank 4th (KC) and 11th in total defense and 3rd (KC) and 14th in YPP allowed. The Chiefs have allowed 10 or fewer points in 2 of their 3 games and the Raiders have allowed 14 points or less in 2 of their 3 games. Las Vegas is scoring 29 PPG but their stats don’t match their point total. Their only averaging 4.9 YPP (23rd in the NFL) and just 26 yards per drive (26th). And that’s having faced 3 defenses that rank 19th or lower in total D. They’ve been lucky in the turnover stats with 9 takeaways (most in the NFL) and they’ve created a turnover on over 25% of opponent offensive possessions (first in the NFL). 27% of their points this season have come directly after opponents turnovers including a number of short field TDs and FGs. KC has only 2 turnovers this season so we don’t expect LV to benefit offensively from takeaways in this one. KC is also averaging 29 PPG but they’ve faced defenses ranked 19th, 29th, and 32nd in total D so far this year. Both these teams have played 1 division game this year and both have gone under totaling 41 points (KC vs Denver) and 40 points (LV vs LA Chargers). Speaking of division games, the Chief have now gone Under the total in 11 of their last 13 AFC West games and the Raiders have gone Under in 5 of their last 7 division games dating back to the start of last season. Under is the call on Sunday.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -3 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is Houston’s last hurrah. They are 0-3 on the season and a loss here would be a huge hill to climb to make the playoffs. Teams that start 0-3 have very little shot to make the playoff to begin with (around 3% historically) and dropping to 0-4 puts the chances at less than 1%. Even though the historical odds are miniscule at 0-3, the Texans did it last season (started 0-3 and made the playoffs) so the hope is still there. Teams that start 0-3 have been money makers in week 4 covering the spread 65% of the time over the last 20+ seasons and since 2015 those teams are 24-9 ATS (73%). Houston’s defense remains one of the best in the NFL and they have a huge advantage over the Cowboys defense who ranks 30th in total defense, 31st vs the run, 26th in YPP allowed, and 31st in defensive success rate and defensive EPA. Houston’s offense isn’t as bad as their point total might suggest. They rank 14th in total offense and 10th in passing yards yet only average 18 PPG. The scoring efficiency hasn’t been there as they rank 26th in yards per point. The Texans get a huge boost offensively this week with WR Nico Collins returning after missing the last 2 games. We look for Houston’s scoring to catch up with their other offensive stats and this is the game to do it vs one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Dallas has losses vs NYG and last week vs Baltimore and their 1 win was at home vs Washington who lost starting QB Daniels late in the 1st half. The Boys are in a terrible situational spot after playing in Brazil last Sunday and losing on a last second FG to the Ravens. That was a 10,000 mile round trip and now they are on the road again following a devastating loss. Teams coming off an international game and then tabbed a road dog in their next game are just 1-12 SU since 2018. Tough spot. We like Houston to win by more than a FG.

#257 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -2.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Very interesting line move here as the Cards have flipped from a dog +1.5 to the road favorite -2.5 despite their 1-2 record taking on the 2-1 Giants. You don’t see Arizona as a road favorite very often and you almost never see them flip to the road chalk after being tabbed a dog at the open. Makes you sit up and take notice. It makes complete sense as the Giants offense has been horrendous since losing Jackson Dart. Backup QB Winston hasn’t thrown a TD in the 2 games he’s been the starter and NY actually hasn’t scored a TD period in either of those 2 games (vs Rams & Titans). In their 12-7 win vs the lowly Titans last week, NY was actually outgained 4.6 YPP to 4.1 YPP so not an impressive effort. With Winston under center, they are averaging 210 YPG on only 3.7 YPP. Winston hasn’t exactly been a money maker in his career with a 15-35 spread record as a favorite or a dog of 3 points or less. Arizona has played a tough slate facing Seattle and San Francisco back to back but they still rank in the top half of the NFL in EPA offense despite facing high level defensive teams. They hung tough with the Niners last week losing by 6 points and putting up 30 points. We think the Cards can put points on the board here vs a New York D that ranks 27th in EPA per play and 25th in success rate. Big advantage here to Arizona on offense and their defense should do enough to hold down this poor NYG offense. Remember, the Cards defense doesn’t have great numbers but they’ve faced the Seahawks and 49ers the last 2 weeks who rank as the #1 team (SF) and #6 (Seattle) in the DVOA metric. Since 1990, we've only seen 14 teams enter a season with a win total below 5 and end up closing as a road favorite. Those teams are 9-5 SU/ATS. There is a reason Arizona is the road favorite and with it sitting below a FG, we’ll lay it.

#251/252 ASA PLAY ON Over 46.5 Points – Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - Weather looks perfect in London for this game with temps in the 60’s and light winds. This game is at Tottenham Stadium which was a much better surface (turf) which they use for NFL games compared to potential sloppy games on Wembly Stadium’s grass. We had 2 lower scoring games here last year but the 10 games prior to that at Tottenham averaged 48 total points. Last year’s low scoring results were more a result of the defenses that faced off in those 2 games. 3 of the 4 teams that played in those games last year finished in the top 5 in total defense. That won’t be the case this season as the defensive units here leave a lot to be desired. The Colts are dead last in total defense allowing 417 YPG and Washington isn’t much better ranking 27th at 362 YPG. These stop units rank 27th and 29th in points per drive and defensive success rate. They have both allowed 31+ points in 2 of their 3 games. Neither of these offenses have great stats but look at the defenses they’ve faced off against. Indy has played Houston, KC, and Baltimore, all ranked top 15 defensive DVOA metric. Washington has faced Seattle, Philly and Dallas with the Cowboys being the only suspect unit in that list. Even with that, the Commanders are averaging 25 PPG and the Colts 24 PPG. So if they hit their averages vs defenses that are worse than any they’ve faced this year, this one goes Over.

#213 ASA PLAY ON San Jose St +3 over Hawaii, Saturday at 11:59 PM ET - We like this spot for a San Jose State team that is better than many thought they’d be (including us). They are coming off a 26-10 loss 2 weeks ago vs a solid Fresno State team. The yardage was about dead even in that game but SJSU had 4 turnovers (0 for Fresno) which was the difference in the game. They do have a long travel spot here to Hawaii but the Spartans couldn’t ask for a better situation to get ready for this game and travel to the islands as they’ve had 2 weeks off since their last game. They are taking on a Rainbow team that is way down from last year, especially offensively. They ranks 118th in total offense (top 45 last year) and 131st in YPP (top 60 last year). They’ve been held to 4.9 YPP or less in 3 of their 4 games this season. Hawaii has a 1-3 record despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the country to date (104th SOS). On top of that, they are getting outgained by 60 YPG and 1.5 YPP and the only team they’ve faced ranked in our top 100 power ratings was UNLV and the Bows lost that game 21-6 at home. Their only win was vs a bad New Mexico State team and the YPP numbers in that game were dead even with each team averaging 5.8 YPP. They were just dominated by a Wyoming team last week getting outgained 6.3 YPP to 4.9 YPP in a 27-10 loss. That’s a Wyoming team that had been outgained in every other game including vs FCS Northern Colorado and Central Michigan (one of the worst teams in the MAC). San Jose State has played the much tougher schedule to date (61st) and they have a +0.6 YPP margin (much better than Hawaii). They’ve been decent on the road losing by just 16 @ USC (easy cover) and topping Eastern Michigan on the road. While Hawaii has almost zero running game (137th out of 138 teams), SJSU runs for 150 YPG which could be key here as windy conditions are expected. The Spartans QB Weaver has had a solid season (over 1,000 yards passing and 9 TD’s) and he’ll have a little extra motivation here as he transferred to SJSU from Hawaii after last season. UH QB Alejado is not 100% healthy and he’s thrown only 3 TDs this season. The Rainbows are also banged up on the defensive line which should help San Jose’s running game. The Spartans have won 4 straight meetings and we like them as a dog in this one.