Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Montreal Canadiens (15) versus the Winnipeg Jets (16). THE SITUATION: Montreal (9-5-4) has lost three straight games after their 5-4 loss in overtime at Ottawa on Tuesday. Winnipeg (11-6-1) has won three of their last four games after their 4-3 win in Vancouver on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CANADIENS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: After an 8-1-2 start, Montreal was sliding — and losing two in a row to the hapless Senators compelled the organization to fired head coach Claude Julien. Assistant coach Dominique Ducharme was promoted to become the new head coach. Expect an inspired effort from the Canadiens in the wake of the firing. As it is, the Canadiens have won 10 of their last 13 road games after a loss by just one goal on the road. Montreal has also won 4 of their last 5 games when playing their fourth game in six days. They stay on the road where they have won 4 of their last 5 games — and they have won 7 of their last 10 road games when favored. Winnipeg has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have lost 20 of their last 28 games after winning two in a row against divisional rivals. Furthermore, the Jets have lost 5 of their last 6 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Winnipeg has also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Winnipeg has won 16 of their last 23 games against the Jets including 4 straight games in Winnipeg. 10* NHL Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Montreal Canadiens (15) versus the Winnipeg Jets (16). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Morehead State Eagles (742) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (741). THE SITUATION: Morehead State (18-7) has won two in a row with their 56-48 win at SIU-Edwardsville on Monday as a 13-point favorite. Tennessee State (4-17) has lost seven of their last eight games with their 77-76 loss to Jacksonville State as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Morehead State should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They return home for the first time since February 6th where they are 10-1 this season with an average winning margin of +11.2 PPG. The Eagles hold their guests to just 59.1 PPG on 38.4% shooting from the field. Morehead State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have coved the point spread in 4 straight games at home against a team with a losing record on the road. Tennessee State allowed Jacksonville State to make 52.8% of their shots — they were the fourth opponent in their last five games who shot at least 50% from the field against them. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss. They go back on the road for the first time since February 6th after playing their last four games at home. Tennessee State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games after playing their last three games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against a team with a losing record. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Morehead State Eagles (742) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (741). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (520) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (519). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (21-11) has won three of their last four games with their 109-102 win at Toronto as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Dallas (15-15) has won six of their last seven games after their 110-107 upset win against Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 29 games after a win against an Atlantic Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have not covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Sixers return where they are very tough to bear with a 13-2 record while scoring 117.9 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games with the total in the 220s. Head coach Doc Rivers expects Seth Curry to play tonight with him being upgraded to probable with his nagging ankle. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their alt 8 road games as an underdog of 6 points or less. They may be without Kristaps Porzingis who is listed as questionable with a back injury.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Philly has covered the point spread in 8 straight home games when favored by up to 6 points. 10* NBA Dallas-Philadelphia TNT Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (520) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 2/25:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for Thursday college basketball action is with the Houston Cougars minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Houston (18-3) has won three of their last four games after their 90-52 win against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Cougars stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games wen favored. They also have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Western Kentucky (15-4) has won six in a row with their 89-66 win against Rice back on February 13th. But the Hilltoppers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home by at least 20 points. Western Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least four games in a row. Lay the pints with Houston. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Total of the Year to begin the week with the Syracuse-Duke Over to fuel a 25 of 35 (71%) CBB Game of the Year/Month Totals mark along with a 115 of 185 (62%) CBB TOTALS TEAR! Frank is on a 20 of 29 (69%) CBB run — and now he furthers his 31 of 45 (69%) CBB Game of the Month/Year run with his 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Total of the Year! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (15-4) has won six games in a row after their 89-66 win against Rice as a 9.5-point favorite back on February 13th. Houston (18-3) has won three of their last four games with their 90-52 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hilltoppers made 56.5% of their shots against the Owls after shooting 50.9% from the field in their previous game at home against Rice. Western Kentucky has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Additionally, the Hilltoppers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight Unders after winning two in a row on their home court. Western Kentucky has also played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after two wins in a row against conference opponents — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total (146.5 versus Rice 2/13). The Hilltoppers may be rusty on offense with the almost-two-week layoff. As it is, they have only scored 64.6 PPG on 38.4% shooting in their last five games which is almost 5.0 PPG below their season average. And while they rank 103rd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 149th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. But their defense travels — Western Kentucky ranks 57th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency compared to their 132nd ranking  when playing at home. They hold their home hosts to 41.8% shooting. The Hilltoppers have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total on the road — including seven of their last nine games. They also have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Houston has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Cougars also held the Bearcats to just 30.0% shooting. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Houston ranks 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while leading the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2%. The Cougars have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation when playing at home where they limit their opponents to just 34.1% shooting and 54.2 PPG. Houston has played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total — and the Under is 38-14-1 in the last 52 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 16-5-1 in the Cougars’ last 22 home games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and Western Kentucky has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Most of the top professionals are participating in the World Golf Championships event this week in Bradenton, Florida. Mexico City has been the site of this tournament over the last few years but it will take place in a likely one-off at the Concession Golf Course. WGC tournaments are no-cut events. Most of the pros will not be very familiar with this course — the highest-profile event it has recently hosted was the NCAA Championship in 2015 that Bryson DeChambeau won. This course consists of 74774 yards with water impacting more than half the holes. Three of the four Par-5s have 577, 590, and 609 yards. The construction of the fairways is forgiving off the tee but the undulated greens will put a premium on second shots. Bermuda greens are the putting surface on the relatively small greens. Jack Nicklaus designed the course — he typically prioritizes iron play for success on his layouts. The metrics I will be privileging include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-5 Scoring, Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, and (as always) Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.

Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Webb Simpson who is listed at +3300 at BetOnline. Simpson last played two weeks ago at the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open where he finished in 42nd place. Simpson is winless in his 23 appearances at a World Golf Championship event. But Simpson is a machine when playing at ball-striking courses like this that feature Bermuda greens. Over the last 18 months, Simpson has 13 starts on courses with Poa or Bentgrass greens, and 14 starts at events with Bermuda greens. Simpson has eight top-20s with a tie for sixth place on Poa and Bentgrass tournaments. But when playing at events with Bermuda greens, Simpson has 12 top-20s with eight top-4s including two victories. Simpson is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour. He was sixth last year in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and fourth in Shots-Gained: Total. He was in fine form in Hawai’i in last month with a tie for fourth place at the PGA Sony Open after a tie for 17th place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions. Simpson is linked with Collin Morikawa in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Morikawa finished in 43rd place last week at the Riviera Country Club. He is a fantastic ball-striker — but he is a mess right now with the blade. Morikawa is experimenting with a new grip with his putter — yet he was last in Shots-Gained: Putting last week for Round Four and for the entire week amongst the golfers who made the weekend cut. The poor form with the putter will not help his confidence today. Morikawa is also just 43rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green and 65th in Bogey Avoidance. Let’s take the wily-veteran elite ball-striker over the promising young ball-striker. Take Simpson (7110) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions versus Morikawa (7109). Best of luck for us — Frank.